Statistics on International Parental Kidnapping

This is a working document to accumulate statistical information.  I will eventually use it to make better estimates of the extent of the problem.  If you find additional info, please let me know.

Japan Court Case Statistics

Court Statistics  (Supreme Court?)

Number of International parental abduction cases in US

This article quotes the NCMEC as saying "that as many as 10 percent of 165,000 parental kidnapping cases a year involve one parent taking a child abroad."  That would mean that there were about 16,500 cases of international parental abduction in or about the year 2000.

Parents in International Custody Battles Fear Impact; Washington Post; February 3, 2000.  Information on various worldwide parental abduction cases in the light of the Elian Gonzalez incident in the US. Included is Walter Benda's well known Japan case.   (cached copy)

• In about 2000, 16,500 cases of international parental abduction.

Then a quote on the April 28, 2006 CBS Early Show from Ernie Allen, president of the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children, says that "An estimated 200,000 children are taken by family members each year, most of those non-custodial parents."  So looks like cases are up from 2000, although he did later say it was "roughly" 200,000, so its unclear whether the actual number is higher or lower.  Assuming the same 10% rate for international abductions we conclude:

• In about 2006, 20,000 cases of international parental abduction.  (This is new and not yet included in the calculations below.)

Source: http://travel.state.gov/family/abduction/resources/resources_545.html (cached copy)

"Well over 200 cases of parental child abduction cases occur each day in the United States. Comment, "[Bentsch, ST,] 'Court-Sponsored Custody Mediation to Prevent Parental Kidnapping: A disarmament Proposal,' 18 St. Mary’s Law. Journal. 361 (1986)."

"According to another study, 350,000 cases of child abduction occur every year in the United States. Comment, "Procedural Problems in the Adjudication of International Parental Child Abduction Cases," 10 Temp. Int’l & Comp L. J. 445,446 (1996). Ten thousand of those cases involved U. S. children held in foreign countries as pawns of custody disputes between one parent of U. S. citizenship and one of a different nationality. Id."  [Johnston & Girdner, "Early Identification of Parents at Risk for Custody Violations and Prevention of Child Abductions," 36 Fam. & Conciliation Courts Rev. 392 (1998).(PDF format)  (cached copy HTML or PDF)]

• Around 1996, 10,000 case per year of international parental abduction

According to the introductory comments of the March 17-19, 2006 draft of the Uniform Child Abduction Prevention Act (cached copy):

"The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention estimated that 262,100 children were abducted in 1999; 203,900 of them (or 78 per cent) were abducted by a family member. There are 1773 family abductions for every stranger abduction. Approximately 1000 of the abductions were international. See Second National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway, and Thrown away Children (NISMART-2) (Oct. 2002)." (cached copy)

• In 1999, there were 203,900 cases of parental abduction

Unfortunately, I cannot find the reference to 1000 international abductions in the source.  It is also unclear whether that is 1000 total, or 1000 out of every 1773.  Since 1,000 total is far off of the other estimates, I will assume 1000 out of every 1883.  So if true, this would mean that:

• An astounding 56% of all family abductions in 1999 were international abductions
• There were 115,000 international family abductions in 1999.

But this is a ridiculously high number.  So whatever way I look at it, this source for the number of international abductions does not seem reliable. I will ignore that unless I can find some supporting evidence.

The above NISMART-2 source also found 121,800 cases that were reported to police in 1999, but notes the fact that "police do not keep full records of all the individuals who contact them about family abductions and may not categorize the episodes as such in their databases" so that actual reports by police may be much smaller.  It also found that "Caretakers did not contact the police regarding 40 percent of the family abducted children, citing a variety of reasons."  23% of those were reported resolved, as the reason, leaving about 31% of the incidents in which the police were not contacted AND which were not resolved.

• In 1999 31% of family abductions were not reported by the police and not resolved.

Conclusion: The minimum estimate above for number of international family abductions in 1996 was 10,000.  The number reported in 2000 was 16,500 which could indicate growth.  For following calculations I will use the conservative 10,000 per year figure as a lower bound and 16,500 as an upper bound.

Number of US children abducted to Japan each year

The report from the Common Law Judicial Conference on International Child Custody; Washington, D.C.; September 17 - 21, 2000. (cached copy) has information from database of US Office of Children's Issues for number of open, created and closed cases as of 2000. They report 410 cases created in 1999.  They also report that Japan is #5 of the top 5 non-Hague countries with 17 of 134 open cases and 43 of 293 total cases, among the top 5 countries' totals.  That's about 12-15% for Japan.  So if you included international cases from Hague countries, this percentage would be less.  (But note that Hague cases are much more likely to close each year, so perhaps not immensely less.)

In 2006, we have a source which says that based on the NCMEC database from 1995 to 2006, 16% of all active cases are from Japan.  (I will try to document this later.)  If true, it means that the percentage has risen from 12% to 16% since 2000.  The problem has gotten worse.  (Note that as a child turns 18, it is highly likely that a case becomes inactive.  I need to confirm this, but it appears that federal warrants are dropped when the child turns 18, so it seems reasonable that an NCMEC case would also be closed.  So this percentage is somewhat of a moving average and should be biased toward being more representative of recent years than former years.  It is unclear whether these are officially reported cases (e.g. the NCMEC estimate) or an estimate of all including unofficial ones.  In any case, our number so far is thus conservative.

Conclusion:  Using the smallest and oldest percentage, 12% along with the smallest estimate of number of international abductions, 10,000 we get 120 cases per year. Changing to the newest and larger percentage, 16%, we get 160 cases per year.  Changing to the more recent number of international abductions, 16,500, we get 264 cases.  Thus my new estimate is between 120 and 260 new cases of abduction to Japan per year in the US.  (This translates to a per capita rate between 0.4 and 0.87 abductions to Japan per million US citizens, based on a population of 300 million.)

Contrast this conservative estimate of this to a December 2003 conference at the Canadian Embassy in Japan, "The U.S. Embassy said it is aware of 20 children who have been abducted to Japan."  (An anonymous source tells us that the State Department officially admits to only 25 cases, although it is unclear whether that is the total number of open cases, or the total number of open cases with federal arrest warrants.  There is a difference of between a factor of 4.8 and a factor of 13, depending on which figures you use. But in either case, this discrepancy is large, so it seems like the State Department figures do not cover all cases.

• Parents, experts urge Japan to sign child custody treaty; Mainichi Daily News; December 4, 2005.  An article based on the Seminar on the Hague Convention and International Child Abduction at Canadian Embassy. (cached copy)

• Increased cross-national divorces raise concerns over parental abductions; Japan Economic Newswire Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge via TMCNet.com; January 03, 2006. More on the December seminar at the Canadian embassy, and a few more statistics on open cases in several countries.  (cached copy)  

  "The U.S. Embassy in Japan is currently dealing with the abductions of about 20 children while the Canadian Embassy is handling 21 cases and the British Embassy five cases, according to their officials."

Sanity Check

The following table shows marriage, divorce and birth statistics involving Japanese and American couples for the years 1995 and 2004, years similar to ones we have examined above, which also have all three statistics available.  (Follow the links to see the sources of the data.)

There are more than enough marriages and more than enough births to support between 120 and 260 Japanese abductions a year.  If one assume that most abduction occur in connection with a divorce or eventual divorce, then the most relevant statistic is the number of divorces.  (Although if you look over the cases of abduction on this website, there are several abductions from out of wedlock births.  So it is not at all clear that these can be ignored.  Unfortunately, the statistics on international births are not broken down into those within and outside of marriage.)  The high end of the range of divorces per year would mean that recently, about one of every two divorces ends up in an abduction.  (It is exactly one of every two in 2004 if 15% of the abductions are from births out of wedlock.  This seems reasonable.)  At the low end, this means that one out of every four divorces corresponds to an abduction to Japan.  (Assuming 8.3% of abductions were from out of wedlock births.) 

The biggest unknown here is how many divorces had minor children.  According to this chart, the domestic Japan national average is about 60%.  For the 260 case estimate, this would mean that nearly all international divorces with minor children ended up in an abduction.  Possible, but one would hope unlikely. The estimate of 120 cases would thus mean that about one of every two divorces with minor children ended up in an abduction.  This sounds more likely.  But wait.  This analysis assumes that the age demographics of Japanese who marry and divorce Americans is the same as that of Japanese who marry each other.  This seems unlikely.  The above chart shows that the vast majority of such relationships involve a Japanese woman, rather than a Japanese man.  My guess would be that the ones who meet overseas are younger than the average since they may meet in school or in some other kind of educational setting, i.e. English school.  In Japan, I'm not sure.  Could be same as the national average or could be higher.  I cannot find data to go further on this.

Overall, this sanity check indicates that both the high and low estimated number of cases are physically possible.  The high rate indicates a dismal situation concerning divorces between Americans and Japanese when children are involved.  Nearly all are abducted.  The low rate means that about one of every two such divorces ends in an abduction.  Still sad but much more plausible.  Given the real physical possibility, the large number of variables involved and the unknown effect of differing demographics described earlier, I stick with the original estimate of between 120 and 260 cases per year.

Comparisons With Other Countries

Having statistics from other countries may help extrapolate how many occur with destination Japan, or at least to tell how realistic our estimate is. 

Parental abductions of British children to Pakistan

The following article says that an official at the British High Commission in Islamabad claims there are over 400 cases of British children of Pakistani descent abducted from Britain to Pakistan every year. Pakistan's is predominately (about 97%) Muslim and Britain is predominately (about 97%) non-Muslim.  This could give a Pakistani parent who is separating from a British non-Pakistani partner abroad, a strong incentive to return home with their children, in order to continue their religious upbringing unopposed by the other partner.  (Similar behavior as Japanese citizens for different reasons.)   Pakistan's population is about 160 million, similar to Japan's population of approximately 125 million.  There are many other variables that could invalidate this simple comparison.  (Such as ease of access by Pakistani's to/from Britain vs. Japanese and the USA; differences in comparative standards of living and economies, international marriage/birth rates, etc.)  But this translates to a per capita rate of 6.7 abductions to Pakistan per million British citizens, based on a population of 60 million.)  This is between 7.7 and 16.7 times HIGHER than the US per capita rate.  So not only does 120 to 260 cases per year sound possible, it could be quite a bit lower than reality.

• Pakistani court asks Scottish mother to appear; The Sunday Telegraph; Sept 2, 2006. (cached copy)

Gender of Parental Abductors

According to The National Conference of Commissioners on Uniform State Laws, in their "Materials for introductory meeting of drafting committee for 'International Abduction Prevention Act'". (cached copy) "Fifty-three percent of family abducted children were abducted by their biological father, and 25 percent were abducted by their biological mother." from Second National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway, and Thrown away Children (NISMART-2) (Oct. 2002)." (cached copy) which also says that for Domestic US abductions in 1999, overall gender of abductors was: male 66% female: 34%.  The NCCUSL website neglects to mention the following from NISMART-2 endnote #1.

"Other methodological factors, such as a preponderance of female caretaker interviewees and a greater likelihood of getting information about children in their primary residential household, may have resulted in some undercounting of family abductions perpetrated by females and caretakers with primary custody."

Another study (also for the year 1999) by the Permanent Bureau of the Hague Convention on Private International Law, who analyzed reports from signatories to the Hague Convention of 25 October 1980 on the Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction, the majority of international abductions are committed by women.

female: 69%
male: 30%
both: 1%

See page 8, of  Nigel Lowe et al., A Statistical Analysis of Applications made in 1999 under the Hague Convention of 25 October 1980 on the Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction, 10, 12 (Rev. Mar. 2002)  (cached copy)

This document cites another published document by the same author in agreement, as well as an unpublished one suggesting that males and females are equally likely. Further, it goes on to say that:

"Closer analysis has shown taking persons to be female in between 88% and 100% of applications received by Scandinavian countries. Additionally all 8 taking persons in applications to Hungary were female. Conversely, while the figures are small, all taking persons to Hong Kong and Bosnia and Herzegovina were male. There was also an interesting Anglo-American difference, which is worth noting. In incoming applications to England and Wales, 85% of taking persons from the USA were female. In contrast, in outgoing applications from England and Wales to the USA only 58% were female."

The following Daily Yomiuri article reports that "Worldwide, the NCMEC says that women outnumber men as perpetrators by a factor of more than two to one."  Assuming this is an accurate report, since the NCMEC is a US organization, it is possible that this should be qualified as applying to international abductions from the US.  I hope to confirm this someday directly.

• Fighting for justice in the court of public opinion; (日本語版) Daily Yomiuri, December 3, 2005.  An article about the CRN Japan fight for change, the website and an interview with Mark Smith.  Since you are reading this website, no need to say more. 

The majority of parental kidnappers reported on this website are mothers.  I have a speculation on why this is true and why it is likely true that in Japan's case, the majority really are mothers.  Please note that this is a speculation only.  The following reasoning is NOT based on any statistics, and is purely speculation at this time, although I will look for some statistics to back it up, if they in fact exist.  If you see any flaw in this reasoning, please let me know and I will think about it, and either correct the following, or address your comment.  And if you read carefully, you will see that its not clear whether the conclusion should be that more abductors are mothers, or simply that more abductions by mothers are reported.

Speculation about mothers being the most frequent international parental kidnappers makes some sense to me, at least if you add the caveat "reported" international parental kidnappers. Look at the statistics for international marriages among Japanese. Majority of marriages with Japanese women is with westerners who are likely just as affluent as Japanese. Majority of marriages with Japanese men is with Asian women who are relatively less affluent than Japanese.

The western countries have a concept of shared custody and have signed the Hague Convention on International Child Abduction. Japan has a concept of one parent disappears and have not signed the Hague Convention. So when the marriage fails, all else being equal, do you think the western father or the Japanese mother is more likely to kidnap? I would say Japanese mother.

Now the other pairing. Neither Japan, Korea, Philippines or China have signed the Hague Convention. Culturally I don't know whether the other countries have a similar "one parent disappears" philosophy or not. But I wouldn't be surprised if at least Korea and China do since they are culturally related to Japan. But based on the fact that none have signed the Hague Convention, they should all be equally likely to abduct from that standpoint. Therefore, lets assume that in these pairings, the Japanese father and foreign mother are equally likely to abduct.

So in the first pair, the mother is much more likely to abduct, and in the second pair they are equal. That would suggest that overall, the woman would abduct more often.

Now once and abduction occurs in pair1, the western father is more likely to be able to afford to report it and fight it. The Japanese mother, even if she has the same financial resources available, is more likely to accept it since Japanese culture says she should. In pair-2, following the assumption that they all have some cultural tendency to accept an abduction, there may be little difference in whether mothers or fathers are reported as abductors more often. But Chinese and Filipinos are much less able to pursue a legal battle. So I hypothesize that they are less likely to report the man as abducting their child. (I am assuming that Koreas are nearly as wealthy as Japanese or that most of the Korean marriages are actually Zainichi Koreans, so approximately just as wealthy.)

So in summary, among the majority of international marriages with Japanese, I hypothesize that the Japanese woman is somewhat more likely to abduct, overall. But on top of that, given that an abduction has occurred, it is much more likely to be reported in the case of a Japanese woman and western man pair. So overall, any statistics gathered on reported abductions should indeed point toward Japanese women as abducting not only more than Japanese men, but men regardless of country,

I welcome comments on the above reasoning, and I will flesh it out with actual statistics in the future.

Other useful articles

• Center planned to help single mothers collect payments from ex-husbands;  The Asahi Shimbun; September 8, 2006.  Contains some interesting statistics from a government survey, giving rates of child support payments by fathers, single mothers, child visitation. Also says that "Some 20.6 percent [of single mothers] said they wanted their former husbands out of their lives...".  If you would expect a single mother to be more likely than a remarried mother to want help from the natural father, this gives us a conservative estimate of the overall rate of denied visitation.